It’s probable that the Harris lead is fictitious and Trump’s support is 2 to 4 points higher. It’s
important to remember that Trump, for the first time ever, maintained a consistent lead in most national and swing state polling averages from last fall until three weeks ago. Trump never led in 2016, yet he defeated Hillary Clinton. Likewise, he never led in 2020, and just barely lost to Biden. Now he is allegedly trailing Kamala Harris, who until 60 days ago, was regarded as a drag on the Democratic ticket. Seem implausible? It’s no illusion.
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