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Not a toss-up: Polling guru Nate Silver gives Trump 66% chance of winning 2024 race


Election prognosticator Nate Silver is no fan of Donald Trump, but he predicts that the

former president will win the November election, and what’s more, it won’t be particularly close. In his first 2024 presidential election model, the political-statistics guru gave the presumptive Republican nominee a 65.7% chance of winning the Electoral College vote versus 33.7% for the Democrat Biden. “The model gives Trump a 66 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, and Biden a 34 percent chance,” Mr. Silver said Thursday.

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